First of all, “Souda/Soudesu” we are learning in this post is a “future-bound” expression when you talk about your speculation. From the perspective of grammatical structure with verb forms;
<1> [Masu-form without “masu”] + sou desu. — Speculation for future — today (A1 S43)
<2> [Dictionary form] + sou desu. — Hearsay — A1 S47
<3> [Ta-form] + sou desu. — Hearsay — A1 S47
So, we are learning <1> today. Before looking at example sentences, let’s check the connections between verbs in “Masu-form without ‘masu’” and “sou desu”.
Group2 Verbs:
– Ochiru/Ochimasu : intransitive verb : fall down => Ochi+sou desu.
– Kieru/Kiemasu : intransitive verb : (The fire) goes out, disappear, vanish => Kie+sou desu.
Group3 Verbs:
– Kuru/Kimasu : intransitive verb : come => Ki+sou desu.
– Suru/Shimasu : transitive verb (occasionally intransitive verb) : do => Shi+sou desu.
Group1 Verbs:
Gr1-W
– Iu/Iimasu : transitive verb : say, tell => Ii+sou desu.
Gr1-K
– Naku/Nakimasu : intransitive verb : cry, weep => Naki+sou desu.
Gr1-G
– Nugu/Nugimasu : transitive verb : take off cloths => Nugi+sou desu.
Gr1-S
– Hanasu/Hanashimasu : transitive verb : speak, tell => Hanashi+sou desu.
Gr1-T
– Katsu/Kachimasu : intransitive verb : win, overcome => Kachi+sou desu.
Gr1-M
– Yamu/Yamimasu : intransitive verb : stop doing sth => Yame+sou desu.
Gr1-B
– Tobu/Tobimasu : intransitive verb : fly => Tobi+sou desu.
Gr1-R
– Naru/Narimasu : intransitive verb : become, turn to be => Nari+sou desu.
There are two types of sentences for the speculation using verbs in “Masu-form without ‘masu’” and “sou desu” as shown in (1) and (2).
(1) The speaker feel that something is about to happen immediately.
1. Jitensha ga Taore sou desu. (The bicycle is almost falling over.)
2. Imanimo Ame ga Furi sou desu. (It seems like to start raining right now.)
where, Imanimo is an adverb meaning “At any moment”
(2) The speaker expresses his/her speculation about things in future.
3. Okome no Nedan ga Agari sou desu. (It seems that the price of rice is going to go up.)
4. Kotoshi wa Natsu ga Atsuku Nari sou desu. (I guess that summer is going to be hot in this year.)
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This post was written with reference to the exercise A1 of Section43 in “Minna no Nihongo (2nd Edition)” published by “3A Corporation”