Yesterday we learned one of expressions to say speculation, which was “-deshou.” Today we are going to learn another expression to say speculation, “-kamo shiremasen.” When it comes to differences between the two, “-kamoshiremasen” is a little bit less confident and/or less certain than “-deshou”. Sometimes “-kamo shiremasen” is used for the level of suspicion.
At a glance, you may feel the spelling of “-kamo shiremasen” is a little long. How do we understand this new expression? It is rare, but sometimes we would find a textbook of second language that gives us explanations with subdividing expressions into minimum pieces. If I do it for “-kamo shiremasen”, this expression could be subdivided like below;
-kamo : a compound particle with the ending particles “-ka.” and “-mo.”
-ka. : question, being moved, exclamation
-mo. : being moved, exclamation
-shire- : an intransitive verb that has to do with the transitive verb “Shiru/Shirimasu”
-masen : the sentence ending of present-negative in polite speech style.
I don’t think a subdivision like above would help a learner understand “-kamo shiremasen.” well. The following is just my personal view, but rather than to subdivide the expression like this into minimum segments, it is better to learn it as a kind of “cluster” when learning a second language. So, it is better to think simply that “-kamo shiremasen” is an expression to say “I guess that” with less certainty and probability than “-deshou.” Learn such nature of “-kamo shiremasen” through the following examples.
[V-dic] + deshou
1. Sato-san wa Shigoto o Yameru kamo shiremasen. (I guess that Sato-san might be quitting her job.)
[V-nai] + deshou
2. Suzuki-san wa Kyou Kaisha ni Konai kamo shiremasen. (I guess that Suzuki-san might not be coming to the company today.)
Note that the group3 verb “Kuru/Kimasu” becomes “konai” for its Nai-form. It’s neither “Kanai(WRONG)”, “Kinai(WRONG)”, nor “Kenai(WRONG)”. “Kunai” is the worst, because “-unai” happens only for I-adjective. “Kuru/Kimasu” is a verb.
[I-adjective] + deshou.
3. Ano Manga wa Tsumaranai kamo shiremasen. (I guess that the Manga might be boring.)
[Na-adjective] + deshou.
Note that the negative “nai” is included as part of the I-adjective “Tsumaranai”.
4. Kono Kasa wa Joubu kamo shiremasen. (I guess that this umbrella might be sturdy.)
[Noun] + deshou.
5. Takahashi-san wa Ashita Yasumi kamo shiremasen. (I guess that Takahashi-san might be taking day off tomorrow.)
Note that “Yasumi” is a noun, “Yasumu” is a verb.
Again, the followings are just about the difference between “deshou” and “kamoshiremasen.”
“deshou” is used broadly as speculation. When the speaker uses “deshou”, confidence and certainty are usually higher than “kamo shiremasen”. “kamo shiremasen” is sometimes used for speculation of the level of suspicions.
Suppose that a radio anchor said one of the followings in a weather forecast program.
(1) Ashita wa Ame deshou.
(2) Ashita wa Ame kamo shiremasen.
Which comment is appropriate for the weather forecast? It must be (1). If a radio anchor said (2), the listeners would feel like the forecast isn’t scientifically made.
There is an adverb that can make the difference clearer between “deshou” and “kamo shiremasen”. That is “Moshikashitara”. Because it is “perhaps” like adverb with less confidence and certainty, “Moshikashitara” is quite often used with “-kamo shiremasen.” as shown below;
1’. Moshikashitara, Sato-san wa Shigoto o Yameru kamo shiremasen. (Perhaps, Sato-san might be quitting her job.)
It is better to remember two words together as a combination “Moshikashitara, —kamo shiremasen.”
On the other, it is not often for a sentence ending “deshou.” to use “Moshikashitara”.
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This post was written with reference to the exercise A3 on Section32 of “Minna no Nihongo (2nd Edition)” published by “3A Corporation”